On the 41st (and 42nd next week) edition of Outside In: Nudgestock 2021! Nudgestock (https://www.nudgestock.co.uk/) has become one of those corporate marketing [or, should I be saying behavioural science (BS)?] events that one looks forward to every year. Admittedly, I kind of discovered it only last year. When I say discover, I mean to say that I could attend it for a change (though I was well aware about the event since inception) since it was a fully digital version only. And free. I covered some snippets from my notes earlier in this post: https://outsideinlens.substack.com/p/science-of-experience-and-behavioral. Thankfully, they went digital-only – and free – even this year. Yay!
It gave me an opportunity to take better notes and compile this post – not only for your consumption, but even help me synthesize a lot of behavioural science (BS) stuff that we normally would miss in our daily (professional) lives. Also, without sounding bombastic, I was really pleased that some of you actually asked me for this coverage and indicated that you were looking forward to my post. Yahoo! Those requests are really the encouragement I need to continue my efforts on being ‘Outside In’… With much ado, let me share what I learnt… at Nudgestock 2021!
Note: I will have edited the content to some extent – additions/subtractions/revisions (including inputs from the many digital sources who were posting live) – that help polish the narrative in my head. So, please do treat this summary as a ‘value-added’ version rather than a verbatim version only. You can follow the complete Event/Live Stream at:
Session 1) Rory Sutherland – Is Everything BS?
Most problems can be solved by simply adding more variables to the solution/ideation process – which most people (and organizations) fail to do so
Why haven’t solar panels taken off, despite being really up-to-date on the science and technology part? Because the players haven’t addressed the behaviour element of the decision – It is a $30K “irreversible” installation on the top of a house – which the customer is planning to change in the next 5 years
How do you sell the last piece of fruit or vegetable? (Or, why is it difficult to sell the last piece of anything?) An economist would have said drop the price. But, studies would probably show that it is the ‘signals’ of disinterest of the sales person who is more keen on winding up that is driving people away
Coffee Shop Dilemma: How do we signal ‘closing time’ to customers – to avoid last minute customers walking in 5 minutes before closing and sitting for another 45 minutes - without really shutting the store before its stipulated time? Explore just putting up 2 un-used chairs upside down in the store and it may drive away those last minute walk-ins. No ‘closed’ sign, no explicit signal that you are about to close. Just that
In problem-solving and decision-making, deterministic solutions and persuasion usually come first, before creativity does
Everything is BS, but BS isn’t Everything
Session 2) Guru Madhavan – Traps of Efficiency
He is the author of the book – Applied Minds (How Engineers Think): https://www.amazon.in/Applied-Minds-How-Engineers-Think/dp/039335301X
Efficiency: The concept exists to boost performance and who doesn’t want to save time and money and ultimately get more for less? But efficiency has become insidious; something that should exist to help us save time can lead us into a trap in itself. Efficiency acts as an energy drink, producing a fast acting game at the expense of long term distress
There are 3 forms of Efficiencies:
Hard Efficiencies – (Pursue) where all options and outcomes are planned, like a Mechanical Process
Soft Efficiencies – (Pursue) where the end state outcomes are unclear, like a Drug Discovery Process
Messy Efficiencies – (Pursue) where efficiency is only the starting point and not the end goal, like Rice Farming/Irrigation ‘Subak’ practices in Indonesia:
There are 4 Functions of Efficiency: It starts as a Toy (something to explore), Becomes a Theory (something to adopt), Grows Up as Unquestionable Traditions (something to follow), Ends Up becoming Dangerous Traps (something you can never change)
We must pursue Meaningful Inefficiencies rather than Meaningless Efficiencies – which are more human and contextualized for Behaviour
You cannot optimize a system by optimizing its parts separately
More is not always better – Point of view on Efficiency
Sometimes Meaningful Restraints can be as powerful as a Revolution: The first 4 notes of Beethoven’s 5th Symphony are musically efficient, but the slowness that follows gives the creation its real vigor and vitality
Rory: Doorman Fallacy Illustration – What is your Doorman?
Rory Sutherland in his book ‘Alchemy’ has a similar story around how we tend to view Efficiency, which he calls the “Doorman Fallacy” (I have covered his book summary in an Outside In post here at: https://outsideinlens.substack.com/p/alchemy-the-surprising-power-of-ideas)
In Sutherland’s example he sets the doorman as an example of accountant and economist thinking against creative thinking (he calls it psycho-logic) or logic against non-logical thinking
An economist and an accountant’s strategy would be to look for “cost-saving efficiencies” by replacing the doorman with an automatic door, because that’s how they understand the functional role of a doorman. It’s logical. It finds a solution that is cost effective. It’s euphemistically called “value engineering”
But the reality is that the true value of the doorman lies in what is not immediately obvious, opening the door for guests, but lies with the “hidden values” of all the other functions and messages the doorman represents. The image or story that the hotel wishes the guest to see; he is the first contact of hotel and guest. The doorman (if it’s done right) signals the brand and the brand values
If you define every function by the same narrow economic (and rational) viewpoint you end up with a function or facility that has no “soul”. The very essence of how we communicate is via these kinds of oblique messages. It’s a kind of magic that runs counter to logic, it is non-logic
Session 3) Ollie Hulme - The Ergodicity Alarm
First, the definition of Ergodicity: In mathematics, Ergodicity expresses the idea that a point of a moving system, either a dynamical system or a stochastic process, will eventually visit all parts of the space that the system moves in, in a uniform and random sense. This implies that the average behavior of the system can be deduced from the trajectory of a "typical" point. Check out more stuff at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity
Ergodicity Theory predicts that under multiplicative dynamics, (most situations in real life) you should be more sensitive to losses than gains. This explains why insurance benefits the economy and why companies exist because arguably they are risk-pooling entities. It’s also why wealth distribution might be economically beneficial
So what can Ergodicity offer to Behavioural Science (BS)?
Firstly, it offers a warning – not all averages are equal or relevant
It offers simplicity – maximizing time averages grows wealth faster
It offers an explanation – beyond providing a description, it explains and unifies
It can provide falsifiability – clear quantitative behavioural predictions
As an illustration, the Ergodicity concept was applied to the “Wealth Creation” Process. Some key observations are noted below:
Averaged over people – Wealth grows, Averaged over time – Wealth shrinks
Ensemble average is not equal to Time average
Most players lose money. For the unluckiest, wealth shrinks faster toward zero. For the luckiest, wealth explodes pulling up the ensemble average
Understand the difference between Multiplicative and Additive Opportunities:
In a multiplicative time series, the components multiply together to make the time series. If you have an increasing trend, the amplitude of seasonal activity increases. Everything becomes more exaggerated
In an additive time series, the components add together to make the time series. If you have an increasing trend, you still see roughly the same size peaks and troughs throughout the time series. This is often seen in indexed time series where the absolute value is growing but changes stay relative
Your Wealth grows fastest if you align your Opportunities with your Risk Attitudes:
In a life/market/game full of Multiplicative Scenarios, you are better off focusing on Loss Aversion rather than Chasing Gains
Session 4) Maddie Croucher – Fund Raising Secrets
Use the RAISE Framework:
R: Make it Relevant
A: Make it Appealing
I: Make it Intuitive
S: Make it Social
E: Make it Easy
Upcoming Book: Change for Better – Fund Raising Lessons from Behavioural Science
Session 5) David Nutt – Rethink Psychopharmacology and Behaviour Change
When we drink alcohol it affects many parts of the brain, mostly negative effects from memory loss, cravings, violence etc. with just 2 positive outcomes of alcohol, sociability and relaxation
If we can harness the chemical that elevates the green positive effects, rather than power up the red negative effects, we can create a substance that is less harmful
GABA Labs is expanding into the Botanical Spirits and Alcohol-Free beverage market with the launch of their subsidiary company – The Social Drinks Company (TSDC). In January 2021, The Social Drinks Company entered the consumer beverage market with their first Botanical Spirit, Sentia. It is currently available in the UK by pre-order exclusively on their direct-to-consumer site www.sentiaspirits.com
Session 6) Cerita Bethea – Back to the future with Be Sci
Behind every business problem to be solved, there is a human problem to be solved
Never forget that we are humans’ first, data second. Give people respect and empathy and they will give you their custom
Session 7) Shahzeen Attari – Decarbonization
“What’s the most effective way to conserve energy?” One might think of turning off the lights. Think again. While flicking the lights off is a good start, it doesn’t have a great enough impact. In fact, it has very little impact in the grand scheme of things compared with living a vegan lifestyle or driving electric cars
The best arguments in the world won’t change a person’s mind. The only thing that can do that is a good story. – Richard Powers – The Overstay
Other Quotables from #Nudgestock2021
The difference between medicine and poison is the dose. The same is true with efficiency, more is not always better – Thanks to @aashibhaiji
Is efficiency a characteristic of simplified systems or over simplified minds? – Thanks to @aashibhaiji
(On selling the last piece of any item): Having a marketer on the board – Everyone else is saying we should drop the price, and I’m sitting at the back wanting to tell them to make it pink – Thanks to @BenBrabyn
Don’t just test the things that make sense, test the things that don’t. If they work, then you’ve learnt something very valuable – Thanks to @aashibhaiji
Ergodicity: 1 x 10 is not equivalent to 10 x 1 in real life – Thanks to @DarrenLBridger
BS Workshop: Visual Saliency – stand out from the crowd with this Neuro Best Practice Principle! Your product is more likely to be picked up if it contrasts strikingly when displayed in clutter… What colour display would benefit? – Thanks to @CloudArmyNeuro
BS Workshop: Research has shown that brand names of savoury foods with high frequency sounds in them (such as f, s, i and e) are more likely to be perceived as healthy – Thanks to @CloudArmyNeuro
In Conclusion
Everything is BS, but BS isn’t Everything…
References and Sources
1) My Notes Nudgestock 2021
2) The complete Event/Live Stream at:
3) The Behaviours Agency: https://thebehavioursagency.com/nudgestock-2021-our-top-insights/ and Twitter Handle @behavewithus
4) The Doorman Fallacy: https://www.charlesleon.uk/blog/the-doorman-where-the-magic-starts
5) Ergodicity Definition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity
6) Time Series: https://www.r-bloggers.com/2017/02/is-my-time-series-additive-or-multiplicative/
7) GABA Labs: https://alcarelle.com/